Game industry analysts are expecting tomorrow's monthly NPD report on new retail sales to show steep drops from last year's performance, thank in large part to the later-than-usual launch of EA's annual Madden title. While the industry's August sales are usually buoyed by a mid-month launch of Madden -- invariably one of the top sellers for the year -- the NFL lockout threat delayed this year's launch to August 30, past the end of the NPD reporting period on August 27. This fact, combined with a generally weak slate of August releases, leads Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia to predict August software sales will be down 30 to 35 percent compared to last year's mark of $404 million. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter echoes the concern, projecting a 30 percent drop. Both analysts expect the situation to turn around quickly, however, with Madden's late release aided by the launch of Microsoft's Gears of War 3 in September. October's launch of EA's Battlefield 3 will help kick off a strong fourth quarter packed with highly anticipated title, the analysts said. But holiday season strength may not be enough to completely compensate for what has been a weak year for the industry overall. "We continue to think that negative year-over-year sales will weigh on investor confidence in the video games sector until industry sales begin to grow on a sustained basis," Pachter warned. As far as hardware is concerned, both Bhatia and Pachter expect year-over-year declines for the Xbox 360, Wii and DS in August sales, only partially offset by price cut-driven monthly increases in 3DS and PS3 sales.
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