Opinion: The Holiday Hit Lists

[Gamasutra editor-at-large Chris Morris looks at trends in recent holiday "hot toy/game" lists that highlight everything from LeapFrog to Call of Duty -- but do they really say anything at all?] If you're like me, the fact that the holiday push now begins in September is mildly nauseating. Can we all agree, before we dive any deeper, that the display of Christmas decorations in stores starting around Labor Day is categorically wrong? Still, the relentless march to move the holiday shopping period earlier and earlier continues, so it's not especially surprising that the prognosticators and seers from all sorts of research firms and corporations are putting out their annual guesses about what will top this year's "gotta have" lists -- which basically amount to corporate tools that don't mean all that much. It's also not especially surprising to see what's topping that list on the gaming side. You don't need to be an industry insider, after all, to know that Modern Warfare 3 is going to be the biggest game of the year. But there were some interesting trends to come out of Nielsen's predictions on the biggest holiday games. For one thing, while the gaming press has been shouting from the rooftops about the coming battle between Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3, the analysis firm doesn't seem to think consumers will be too conflicted. Battlefield, in fact, is tied for seventh on the Nielsen list – much lower than some might expect. The estimates predict that despite the marketing surge Electronic Arts is putting into the game, it will be outsold by a number of titles, including Batman: Arkham City and Gears of War 3. If those predictions were to pan out – and, of course, there's no guarantee they will – it could be viewed as a big disappointment for EA. Other noteworthy trends: Despite the strong push for Kinect and the Wii in the fourth quarter of 2010 (and family friendly games to go with them), the gaming category is still leaning toward more mature fare (which would seem to support theories that core gamers are becoming more critical to publishers and their bottom line). Eleven of the 20 games Nielsen picked have strong action or shooter elements to them. The number of family friendly titles came in at 9, but that also folded in sports simulators like Madden and music games like Dance Central 2. It's worth noting that while games will undoubtedly sell well this holiday season, none of the titles on the Nielsen list made it onto the slew of "Hot Holiday Toy/Gift" lists from Toys R Us, Kmart, Toy Insider or Time to Play. Those lists didn't ignore the gaming world. Instead they chose focus on four other items that have video game ties. LeapFrog, as it does seemingly every year, is a frequently mentioned name on the lists, with its Explorer tablet getting plenty of praise this year for its edutainment qualities. The Angry Birds movement is showing no signs of slowing down either, with Toy Insider suggesting that plush, stuffed birds and pigs will be under plenty of trees this year and Time To Play putting its support behind the Angry Birds Knock On Wood game (essentially a tabletop version of the iPhone hit). Toys R Us and Toy Insider are both strongly behind Activision's Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure. (The Toys R Us support, of course, isn't overly surprising, given that the company is jointly marketing the "inter-action" figure with Activision.) Surprisingly, only one list – Toy Insider - tipped its hat to THQ's uDraw update for the Xbox 360. The Wii version of the peripheral got plenty of holiday list love last year, but apparently that hasn't carried over to 2011. But in the end, none of these lists tend to have a lot of weight, other than in media outlets (like this one). Parents know that the best way to figure out what their kids want is the same way people know what their friends want: By either asking them or having a close enough relationship with them to be able to make an educated guess. Lists like these? They're the corporate equivalent of positioning ornaments alongside the Halloween costumes.